FORECASTING ELECTIONS: DO PREDICTION MARKETS TELLS US ANYTHING MORE THAN THE POLLS?

Forecasting elections with non-representative polls

Election forecasts have traditionally been based on representative polls, in which randomly sampled individuals are asked for whom they intend to vote. While representative polling has historically proven to be quite effective, it comes at considerable financial and time costs. Moreover, as response rates have declined over the past several decades, the statistical benefits of representative sa...

Markets vs. Polls as Predictors: An Historical Assessment of US Presidential Elections

Culture change matters more than technological change, US healthcare expert tells integrated care summit.

Integrating health and social care more closely should be seen as a sociological rather than technological challenge, says the US doctor who deployed electronic health records for hospital and clinics serving US veterans. When Kenneth Kizer took over as head of the Department for Veterans Affairs in 1994, the staff was demoralised by the federal bureaucracy’s risk averse and punitive culture. P...

Learning in Investment Decisions: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Polls

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting Prediction markets – markets used to forecast future events – have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by economic forecasters. We show that prediction markets ha...